Forecasting manager

Job Purpose Summary

This is a commercial forecasting role within Demand & Supply Strategy, supporting robust commercial and financial decision-making by providing reliable commercial demand and financial forecasts for innovative medicines and vaccines. Working closely with Marketing, Finance, Medical, Market Access and Business/Commercial Excellence, the role translates market dynamics, patient demand, product performance, market access considerations and business assumptions into clear forecasts, scenarios and insights that support planning cycles from pre-launch preparation through launch, in-market performance management and long-range planning.

The position requires strong analytical capability, sound forecasting judgement, effective stakeholder communication and the ability to improve forecast models and methodologies so that forecast assumptions are well understood, appropriately challenged and aligned across key commercial and financial business partners. The role also communicates forecast assumptions to Supply Chain and reviews inventory coverage or supply availability to understand potential risks to commercial plans.

This role offers the opportunity to work closely with key commercial and financial stakeholders and directly influence business planning, performance management and business decisions through forecasting and analytics.

Key responsibilities

Commercial demand and financial forecasting:
・Establish, document and maintain commercial demand and financial forecasts for prioritized medicines and vaccines including pre-launch preparation, launch and in-market products, supporting Monthly forecast, Annual Plan, Long Range Forecast and other relevant business planning cycles.
・Develop sell-in and sell out SKU level forecasts by applying quantitative and analytical techniques and building robust assumptions and scenario plans based on historical performance, market dynamics, patient flow, demand drivers, market access considerations, competitive activity and cross-functional business inputs.
・Lead scenario planning and sensitivity analysis to assess risks, opportunities and business implications related to patient uptake, market share, competitor events, pricing and access changes, demand shifts and other business uncertainties.
・Communicate commercial demand and financial forecast assumptions to Supply Chain and Manufacturing stakeholders as needed, and review inventory coverage or supply availability to understand potential risks to commercial plans.
・Build, validate, enhance and optimize the forecast models, methodologies and tools in collaboration with team members, improving assumption structure, scenario functionality, transparency, reliability, usability and decision value. Leverage Python and analytics tools to automate and optimize forecasting processes.

Performance management:
・Monitor landing estimates, actual performance versus forecast, key sales and demand drivers, forecast accuracy and bias using relevant metrics, and provide clear explanations, business implications and corrective recommendations to improve forecast quality and support commercial and financial decision-making.

Commercial stakeholder partnership:
・Partner primarily with Marketing, Finance, Medical, Market Access and Business Excellence to align forecast assumptions, understand business questions and provide forecasting insights that support brand strategy, financial planning, performance reviews and business performance management.

Process improvement and capability building:
・Drive continuous improvement, automation and standardization of forecasting processes, templates, tools and governance, and provide coaching, training and knowledge sharing to strengthen forecast model understanding, process adherence and overall forecasting capability.

*Future scope of job and working location will be determined by company.

Basic Qualification

Skill：
・Agile and distributed decision-making under pressure and with incomplete information using evidence and applying judgement to balance pace, rigor and risk, governance and control, managing ambiguity and paradox.
・Building strong relationships with Commercial and teams who hold final decision-making power, acting as collaborative strategic partner rather than an isolated data provider.
・Strong executive communication skills, with the ability to translate complex data and assumptions into clear business narratives and recommendations.
・Advanced Excel and PowerPoint skills; familiarity with data visualization, automation or analytics tools is a plus

Experience：
・5+ years of relevant experience in pharmaceutical or healthcare commercial forecasting, business analytics, financial forecasting, performance tracking or related analytical roles.
・Experience developing, maintaining and explaining patient, demand, sell-in and sell-out forecasts, including forecast assumptions, scenario analysis, variance analysis and performance reporting using various data.
・Experience analyzing sales, prescription, patient, market access, demand or other commercial data sources to identify performance drivers, risks and opportunities and translate them into business insights.
・Practical experience using Excel-based forecasting or analytical models; experience with data visualization, forecasting tools or analytics platforms such as Power BI, Tableau, SQL, Python or similar tools is preferred.
・Experience working with cross-functional stakeholders to support brand planning, financial planning, launch planning and business performance management.

Education/Certification/Language：
・University degree (Business, Finance, Economics, Statistics, Data Analytics, Mathematics, Life Sciences, Pharmaceutical Sciences or other relevant quantitative or business-related discipline)
・Good written and verbal communications skills in English

*Legal right to work in Japan.

Preferred Qualification

・Experience utilizing pharmaceutical/medical source (e.g. IQVIA, MDV/JMDC or primary marketing research data)
・Experience in market research or commercial forecasting
・Deep conceptual understanding of machine learning techniques
・Bilingual Japanese / English preferred.

Skills

Why GSK?

Uniting science, technology and talent to get ahead of disease together.

GSK is a global biopharma company with a purpose to unite science, technology and talent to get ahead of disease together. We aim to positively impact the health of 2.5 billion people by the end of the decade, as a successful, growing company where people can thrive. We get ahead of disease by preventing and treating it with innovation in specialty medicines and vaccines. We focus on four therapeutic areas: respiratory, immunology and inflammation; oncology; HIV; and infectious diseases – to impact health at scale.

People and patients around the world count on the medicines and vaccines we make, so we’re committed to creating an environment where our people can thrive and focus on what matters most. Our culture of being ambitious for patients, accountable for impact and doing the right thing is the foundation for how, together, we deliver for patients, shareholders and our people.

We are committed to creating an inclusive workplace and providing equal opportunities for all applicants. We embrace an agile working culture across our roles, so if flexibility is important to you please discuss opportunities with our hiring team. If you need any adjustments to the recruitment process to help you demonstrate your strengths and capabilities, contact APACRecruitment.Adjustments@gsk.com. Please note this email is for adjustment requests only; for other enquiries please use our standard contact channels.

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